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Tuesday, November 3, 2009
It's another crucial election night again, with key gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, and special elections in New York's 23rd Congressional District and California's 10th Congressional District.
Republican Bob McDonnell appears to be cruising to a huge win in Virginia, the same state that gave Barack Obama 52.6% last November. The latest polls had McDonnell up by 12-15 points. RealClearPolitics polling average has him up 13.
New Jersey Governor
Chris Christie, the GOP candidate, has held a very slim lead in the latest polls (RCP has him up by 1 over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine). The twist in this race (besides notorious New Jersey voter fraud) is Chris Daggett, the Independent candidate, who has bee drawing as much as 15% in recent polls.
This race has been a real roller-coaster! Initially, ultra-liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava led in this three-way race. However, the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman (a registered Republican) attracted national attention, and received endorsements from high-level conservatives such as Fred Thompson, Sarah Palin, and Tim Pawlenty.
The NRCC spent nearly $1M in ads supporting Scozzafava and/or attacking Hoffman. Meanwhile, Hoffman took the lead, jumping over Scozzafava and the Democrat, Bill Owens.
Last week, Scozzafava suspended her campaign (she had dropped to the low 20s/upper teens in polling), and then, in an unexpected twist, endorsed Bill Owens. The last polls showed Hoffman, now with the GOP united behind him, in the lead.
Republican David Harmer is running in a heavily-Democratic district, but has been polled within 10% of the Democrat nominee. A victory here would be unlikely for the GOP, but the Democrat historically gets support in the mid-60s.
This should be a good night for the conservative movement, and the GOP. A three-state sweep of NY, NJ and VA is very likely. That would be a crushing defeat for the Democrats and President Obama, especially in the Republicans can win in New Jersey, and to a lesser extent, California.