Wednesday, May 13, 2009

WRS 2010 GOP Gubernatorial Poll Analysis

Wilson Research Strategies 2010 GOP OK Gov Primary Poll (Link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)
  • J.C. Watts - 39%
  • Mary Fallin - 36%
  • Randy Brogdon - 5%
  • Undecided - 21%
Poll of 501 Likely Voters, May 7-9, with a MoE of 4.4%.
J.C. Watts has a slim lead over Congresswoman Mary Fallin, with Randy Brogdon pretty far back. This is still very early, but it does appear that it will be a close race.

The details get interesting (albeit a little confusing), when you dig into the crosstabs and break it down by congressional district.
First Congressional District
  • J.C. Watts - 52%
  • Mary Fallin - 19%
  • Randy Brogdon - 8%
  • Undecided - 21%
2nd Congressional District
  • J.C. Watts - 41%
  • Mary Fallin - 17%
  • Randy Brogdon - 14%
  • Undecided - 29%
3rd Congressional District
  • J.C. Watts - 37%
  • Mary Fallin - 42%
  • Randy Brogdon - 2%
  • Undecided - 19%
4th Congressional District
  • J.C. Watts - 34%
  • Mary Fallin - 43%
  • Randy Brogdon - 1%
  • Undecided - 22%
5th Congressional District
  • J.C. Watts - 29%
  • Mary Fallin - 53%
  • Randy Brogdon - 2%
  • Undecided - 16%
Watts clobbers Fallin in both the 1st and 2nd Districts. Brogdon shows surprising strength in the 2nd District, neck-and-neck with Fallin, with practically non-existent support in the other 3rd, 4th and 5th Districts. Fallin edges out Watts in the 3rd and 4th Districts, and rather unexpectedly beats Watt soundly in her home 5th District.

We will keep you updated on this and other races.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

I really don't think J.C. Watts would or could win against Mary Fallin...especially if the dirt is dug up on him and made public as to what he's done in the past few years.

Anonymous said...

This is interesting, because the McCarville Report Online tells another story...

http://poll.pollhost.com/ZGVubnkxCTEyNDE2NDg3MjgJRUVFRUVFCTAwMDAwMAlBcmlhbAlBc3NvcnRlZAkw/

I think Wilson gilds the lilly quite a bit.

MuskogeePolitico said...

A note about that McCarville poll.

It is not a scientific poll. Professional pollsters have detailed methodology when it comes to conducting surveys like this.

The Brogdon campaign sent out an email regarding the TMRO poll, and from that point on, Brogdon jumped from a distant second to a massive lead. Certainly not a sampling of the likely Republican primary voters, like you have in the Wilson and Tarrance polls.

Anonymous said...

This may or may not be true. However, Chris Wilson has been doubted and oft-maligned by true conservatives for years. McCarvile, despite his recent adoration of all things Fallen, is generally known for his conservative outlook. I'll take something from his site over something from the OKPNS crowd any day.

MuskogeePolitico said...

I agree with you on McCarville vs. OKPNS.

If you take a look at the crosstabs, though, Brogdon needs to start getting some name recognition and support outside of eastern Oklahoma (the First District and my own Second District, which, I'm proud to say, has the highest support for Brogdon).

I think that Brogdon does very well among party activists, but with his very low name recognition does not perform well among the party at large.