Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Initial Reports: Kadima Leads, but Right beats Left

According to initial exit polls and results, Tzipi Livni's Kadima party leads Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud by about 2 mandates (seats). Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu is currently being reported as having 14-15 mandates, and Ehud Barak's Labor party is fourth, with about 13.

So far, the exit polls say...

Right-wing parties:
  • Likud: 27-28
  • Yisrael Beiteinu: 14-15
  • Shas: 9-10
  • National Union: 3
  • Jewish Home: 3-4
  • United Torah Judaism: 5
Other left-wing parties:
  • Kadima: 28-30
  • Labor: 13
  • Meretz: 4-5
  • Ra'am Ta'al (Arab): 2-4
  • Balad (Arab): 2-3
  • Hadash (Arab): 4, or none
That gives the right-wing, most likely supporting Netanyahu for Prime Minister, 61-65 mandates, and the left-wing, supporting Livni, about 49-59 seats. However, there are rumors that the Arab parties may not join any coalition, protesting the banning of other Arab parties considered to be "anti-Israel". If so, the left-wing could potentially receive as few as 45 seats.

This gives Netanyahu a very good chance at becoming the next Prime Minister, in spite of Likud coming in second to Kadima.

Updates will be provided when they come in.

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