Monday, October 20, 2008

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Seven

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)
  • McCain (R) - 63.7 (63.0)
  • Obama (D) - 32.4 (31.9)
  • Undecided - 4.0 (5.1)
Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.
The undecideds are finally dropping off, as we get into the final days of this election.
TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)
  • Inhofe (R) - 52.9 (53.1)
  • Rice (D) - 39.5 (39.5)
  • Wallace (I) - 3.9 (2.0)
  • Undecided - 3.6 (5.4)
Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.
We appear to have reached equilibrium in this race. The numbers are virtually unchanged over the past three weeks.
TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)
  • Murphy (R) - 39.2 (40.0)
  • Roth (D) - 39.8 (35.1)
  • Undecided -21.0 (24.9)
Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.
The two candidates are now in a virtual tie, whereas before Dana Murphy held a slim lead. I believe this is directly attributable to Roth's growing presence in television advertising. This race will by far be the closest of the major statewide elections on November 4th. Jim Roth has a huge cash advantage over Murphy (as he is 'Bought and Paid For', as I have said time and again.), however, this appears to be a good year for Republicans in the state of Oklahoma, and I feel confident that Dana Murphy will pull this out.
TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)
  • Cloud (R) - 44.9 (37.4)
  • Gray (D) - 29.9 (30.2)
  • Undecided - 25.2 (32.4)
Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.
Again, due to increased TV advertising, Jeff Cloud breaks open an expected lead over his opponent. A big part of the movement? I bet it's due to this ad of his.

Voter ID:
  • Democrat - 52.0% (53.5%)
  • Republican - 42.7% (41.0%)
  • Independent -5.3% (5.6%)

Things are shaping up to be a great November 4th for the Oklahoma Republican Party. It may be a little tense for a while at the Murphy watch party, but I believe that all Republican state-wide candidates will come out on top, and the State Senate will switch control to the Republicans for the first time in state history.

No comments: