Monday, October 27, 2008

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Eight

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)
  • McCain (R) - 61.6 (63.7)
  • Obama (D) - 34.8 (32.4)
  • Undecided - 3.6 (4.0)
Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.
A steady race here. An eight point swing in the voter sample (see below), and still about the same.
TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)
  • Inhofe (R) - 51.3 (52.9)
  • Rice (D) - 41.0 (39.5)
  • Wallace (I) - 3.3 (3.9)
  • Undecided - 4.4 (3.6)
Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.
Again, very little change here (even with the voter ID difference from last week).
TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)
  • Murphy (R) - 34.7 (39.2)
  • Roth (D) - 46.7 (39.8)
  • Undecided -18.6 (21.0)
Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.
Jim "Bought and Paid For" Roth released some hard hitting allegations this past week, and this is a direct result of it. So far, Dana Murphy has not responded in a public enough way to counteract the attack ads. However, if she doesn't start to make up some ground fast, this race might not go so well next Tuesday.

That said, read below about the Voted ID sample.
TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)
  • Cloud (R) - 45.9 (44.9)
  • Gray (D) - 31.3 (29.9)
  • Undecided - 22.7 (25.2)
Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.
Cloud appears likely to cruise to re-election.

Voter ID:
  • Democrat - 55.3% (52.0%)
  • Republican - 37.7% (42.7%)
  • Independent -7.0% (5.3%)

There was a 3% jump in the Democrat sample, a 5% drop in the Republican group, and a 2% rise for Independents. With such a drastic tumult in the voter ID, the results in this poll are a bit hard to stake too much in. Eight points would wipe out much of Jim Roth's new lead, so things might not be so bad for Dana Murphy.

Another interesting thing I noticed in the crosstabs was the Congressional District the persons polled lived in. Throughout the tracking polls, the 2nd CD has typically comprised about 2% more of the polled persons than the other districts. Could this have an impact? Possibly.

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