Tuesday, September 30, 2008

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Four

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)
  • McCain - 67.6 (65.8)
  • Obama - 26.5 (26.2)
  • Undecided - 5.9 (8.0)
Poll of 667 Likely Voters, September 20-22, with a MoE of 3.79%. Last polls results in parentheses.
John McCain maintains a nearly 40-point lead over Barack Obama in this latest poll.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)
  • Inhofe - 56.0 (55.0)
  • Rice - 35.5 (33.4)
  • Wallace - 2.6 (1.6)
  • Undecided - 5.8 (10.0)
Poll of 667 Likely Voters, September 20-22, with a MoE of 3.79%. Last polls results in parentheses.
Jim Inhofe continues to hold a 20-point lead over his Democratic opponent.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Commission Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)
  • Murphy - 38.3 (45.0)
  • Roth - 29.1 (32.6)
  • Undecided - 32.6 (22.3)
Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.
The Corporation Commission race remains extremely fluid, with Murphy falling 7% and Roth dropping 3%. The Undecided column rose by 10 points, the exact number Murphy and Roth fell by.

TvPoll had some interesting commentary on the past few weeks polling for this race:

"Little changed in poll numbers from week one to week two between Corporation Commissioner Candidates Dana Murphy (R) and Jim Roth (D). Both weeks showed a tight race with Murphy in the lead by about 15 points.

Week three, however, concluded with very different results. 24% were in favor of Murphy, 21% in favor of Roth and 55% were undecided in the race for Corporation Commissioner.

What changed? In week one and two, TvPoll.com asked respondents who they were likely to favor when it came time to vote by introducing each candidate along with their party affiliation. To test for party influences, TvPoll.com asked the same question in week three, only this time without differentiating the candidates by party. The difference is significant."

(emphasis mine)
This race will continue to be very fluid.

UPDATE

Voter ID:
  • Democrat - 50.1% (49.6%)
  • Republican - 44.8% (44.5%)
  • Independent -5.0% (5.9%)

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